Libya continues to face a volatile security environment shaped by political fragmentation, militia control, economic instability, and transnational crime. The recent assassination attempt on a government minister, the discovery of mass graves, and continued instability in border regions highlight the pressing need for a comprehensive security framework. While efforts are being made toward military and security cooperation, the overall trajectory suggests that Libya remains a high-risk operational environment for businesses, NGOs, and international stakeholders.

Political Instability and the Struggle for Power

Libya’s political landscape remains deeply fractured, with rival factions competing for legitimacy and control. The Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) and the eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS) continue to operate in parallel, each backed by different militias and foreign sponsors. This division has not only stalled efforts to hold long-delayed national elections but has also perpetuated instability, making governance increasingly difficult.

One of the most significant political developments has been the inability of Libya’s leadership to form a cohesive security structure. Militia groups continue to exert influence over key institutions, and their vested interests in maintaining the status quo make security sector reforms challenging. Despite recent talks between military leaders from both factions, little progress has been made in integrating disparate forces into a unified national army. The presence of foreign mercenaries, particularly those aligned with Russia’s Wagner Group and Turkish-backed forces, further complicates the situation. Their continued role in Libya’s security architecture underscores the country’s reliance on external actors to maintain a fragile balance of power.

Assassination Attempts and Political Violence

One of the most alarming indicators of Libya’s deteriorating security environment was the attempted assassination of Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs, Adel Jumaa, in Tripoli on February 12, 2025. The attack occurred in the Gargour district, an area known for militia activity. While no group has claimed responsibility, this incident highlights a broader pattern of politically motivated violence targeting government officials. The implications are significant—such attacks not only destabilize governance but also create an atmosphere of fear among policymakers and foreign diplomats operating in Libya.

Political violence in Libya is not random but is often linked to power struggles within and between factions. Assassinations and targeted attacks serve as tools for intimidation, allowing militias and political elites to consolidate power or eliminate opposition. The security forces’ inability to prevent such incidents suggests weak state control over urban security, raising concerns for businesses, diplomatic missions, and international organizations operating in the capital.

Human Trafficking and Mass Executions in Kufra

The discovery of mass graves in Kufra in early February 2025 has drawn international condemnation and reinforced the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Libya. Nearly 50 bodies were found, with UN investigators concluding that many victims had been executed before burial. These findings suggest that Libya remains a hotspot for human trafficking, with organized crime networks operating freely in the country’s border regions.

The Kufra region, located in southeastern Libya, is a known hub for smuggling and illicit migration routes. Armed groups and criminal syndicates exploit Libya’s porous borders to traffic migrants into Europe, often subjecting them to extortion, forced labor, and extreme violence. This latest discovery raises serious questions about the government’s capacity—or willingness—to crack down on these networks. Given the absence of effective law enforcement, these human rights violations will likely continue, further tarnishing Libya’s international reputation and potentially leading to greater external intervention.

For businesses and NGOs working in humanitarian aid or border security, the risks are multifaceted. Engaging with local actors requires due diligence to ensure that resources are not inadvertently supporting trafficking operations. Additionally, the lack of state oversight increases the likelihood of personnel encountering armed groups, further elevating operational risks.

Border Security and the Rise of Transnational Threats

Efforts to improve Libya’s border security have been met with mixed success. In response to the increasing threats posed by armed smuggling groups and terrorist factions, Libyan military leaders have pledged to enhance security cooperation. International partners, including the United Nations and U.S. Africa Command, have been involved in facilitating discussions aimed at improving intelligence-sharing and securing border crossings.

One of the key initiatives has been the establishment of a Border Studies Centre, which aims to provide risk assessments and develop strategies to combat irregular migration and transnational crime. However, while these efforts are commendable, the practical challenges remain immense. Libya’s borders stretch across thousands of kilometers of remote desert terrain, making them difficult to patrol effectively. Armed groups operating in the Fezzan region and along the southern border continue to exploit these weaknesses, smuggling weapons, drugs, and militants across international boundaries.

From a risk management perspective, the lack of centralized control over Libya’s borders poses a direct threat not only to regional security but also to businesses operating in critical sectors such as oil and logistics. Companies involved in cross-border trade must contend with shifting alliances among tribal groups, unpredictable roadblocks, and the constant threat of extortion by local militias.

Foreign Intervention and Security Sector Challenges

Libya remains entangled in a web of foreign influence, with multiple states backing rival factions to advance their own geopolitical interests. Turkey continues to provide military support to the Tripoli-based government, while Russia’s Wagner Group remains embedded with Haftar’s forces in the east. The UAE, Egypt, and European nations have also played roles in shaping Libya’s military landscape. While these foreign actors provide critical support, their involvement has also contributed to the fragmentation of Libya’s security institutions.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) recently extended its sanctions measures on Libya, reinforcing restrictions on illicit oil exports and arms smuggling. However, enforcement mechanisms remain weak, and Libya’s black-market economy continues to thrive. The UN Special Envoy for Libya has emphasized the need for a political solution to the crisis, yet diplomatic negotiations remain slow-moving, with no immediate resolution in sight.

For foreign companies operating in Libya, these dynamics present significant risks. The instability in government structures and the continued presence of foreign mercenaries make compliance with international sanctions a crucial concern. Any engagement with Libya’s security forces or oil industry requires careful navigation of legal frameworks to avoid unintended violations of international laws.

Outlook: Uncertainty and Continued Security Risks

Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and security cooperation initiatives, Libya remains highly volatile. The country’s fragmented political landscape, entrenched militia influence, and reliance on foreign intervention create an unpredictable operating environment. While small-scale reforms—such as the establishment of the Border Studies Centre—suggest some progress, they are insufficient in addressing the deep-rooted challenges that persist.

From a risk management perspective, Libya presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario for businesses. The country’s vast oil reserves and strategic location offer significant opportunities, but these must be weighed against the realities of operating in an environment plagued by violence, corruption, and legal ambiguity. Companies seeking to enter the Libyan market must adopt stringent security protocols, continuously monitor the shifting political landscape, and maintain contingency plans for rapid evacuation if necessary.

For international stakeholders, the road to stability will require more than diplomatic negotiations and military cooperation. Structural reforms, a legitimate electoral process, and the disarmament of militias are essential prerequisites for long-term security. Until these issues are addressed, Libya will remain a challenging and unpredictable environment.

Cambrai Risk Solutions provides intelligence-driven security advisory services, helping organizations assess risks and navigate complex operational landscapes. For tailored insights and operational risk support, contact Cambrai Risk Solutions today.