Iraq Report

January 2025

IRAQ SECURITY REPORT – JANUARY 2025

January 2025 saw ongoing instability in Iraq, with security developments shaped by political uncertainty, militant threats, and civil unrest. The country remains volatile due to a combination of economic grievances, tribal conflicts, and insurgent activity. Political tensions escalated following the removal of the governor of Dhi Qar, prompting protests and fears of wider instability. Meanwhile, ongoing threats from Islamic State (IS) cells remain evident in western Iraq, with counterterrorism forces successfully neutralizing several vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) and suicide vests, though concerns persist about future attacks. The Kurdistan Region saw increased drone activity linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), raising the risk of Turkish military retaliation.

Parliament passed three controversial laws that have deepened sectarian and political divisions, particularly the General Amnesty Law, which may see the retrial of convicted terrorists, and the Baathist land claims resolution, which could spark tensions in Kirkuk. Protests at key oil fields in Basra underscored economic frustration, with demonstrators demanding employment opportunities. While the government offered concessions to de-escalate the situation, further unrest remains a possibility if promises are not upheld. Looking ahead, the security landscape remains unpredictable, with February likely to see continued demonstrations, potential terrorist activity, and sustained counterterrorism operations, particularly in western Iraq.

The HEAT map (over-right) provides an overview of concentration of incidents during January 2025

Baghdad & Baghdad Belt Summary

Baghdad witnessed continued security challenges, with sporadic violence, targeted attacks, and crime-related incidents. While counterterrorism measures remained effective, tensions over employment and economic grievances fueled protests, particularly near government offices. Tribal disputes in the Baghdad Belt, particularly in Tarmiyah and Nahrawan, highlighted ongoing instability in surrounding districts.

Key Incidents:

• A shooting at Al-Esraa University on January 5 left six injured, including students and security personnel.

• Protests near the Ministry of Planning and Ministry of Oil focused on employment grievances but remained largely peaceful.

• A grenade attack on a residence in Khatib (January 7) caused structural damage, with no casualties reported.

• Baghdad police arrested multiple individuals involved in tribal conflicts in northeast Baghdad, signaling ongoing tensions.

• Islamic State cells remain active in rural Baghdad Belt areas, with arrests in Tarmiyah targeting suspected insurgents.

Kurdistan Region (Duhok, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah) Summary

The Kurdistan Region experienced heightened security concerns due to an increase in PKK drone strikes against Turkish military positions. Meanwhile, the teachers' strike in Sulaymaniyah ended as expected, but ongoing salary delays raise the risk of renewed demonstrations. While urban centers remained relatively stable, rural areas saw sporadic militant activity.

Key Incidents:

• PKK drones targeted Turkish forces in Erbil and Duhok, with at least two drones intercepted in January.

• Turkish retaliatory airstrikes remain a possibility, particularly if PKK activity escalates.

• Teachers’ protests in Sulaymaniyah ended on January 5, but future strikes remain a risk if wage issues persist.

• Security forces reported increased smuggling routes near the Turkish border, with Kurdish militant groups potentially exploiting the terrain.

Basra & Southern Iraq Summary

Southern Iraq remained a focal point for both civil unrest and tribal disputes. Protests at key oil facilities underscored economic frustration, while tribal conflicts in Basra resulted in casualties. Government interventions temporarily eased tensions, but the underlying grievances persist, making further instability likely.

Key Incidents:

• A tribal clash in Basra on December 31 resulted in two fatalities and over 40 injuries, marking the deadliest such incident in recent years.

• Protests at West Qurna 1 Oil Field (December 27-31) led to demonstrators forcing their way into the facility, prompting government promises of job creation.

• A protest planned at Majnoon Oil Field (January 27) threatens to disrupt operations if demands for improved public services are not met.

• Security forces increased their presence in al-Hayyaniyah following repeated tribal skirmishes.

Central Iraq (Dhi Qar, Babil, Wasit) Summary

Dhi Qar saw significant political instability following the dismissal of its governor, prompting protests and concerns about further disruptions. Tribal disputes and economic dissatisfaction continue to contribute to unrest in central Iraq.

Key Incidents:

• The removal of Dhi Qar Governor Murtada al-Ibrahimi on January 13 sparked demonstrations in Nasiriyah.

• Protesters blocked key highways in Dhi Qar to express opposition to the governor’s removal.

• A long-standing tribal dispute in Islah reignited, with clashes between Rumayd and Omar tribes affecting Route 16.

• Economic protests in Babil and Wasit saw minor disruptions near local government offices.

Anbar & Nineveh Summary

Anbar and Nineveh remain key areas for counterterrorism operations, with IS continuing attempts to stage attacks. Security forces successfully intercepted VBIEDs and other explosives, but the persistent presence of IS cells highlights the ongoing threat.

Key Incidents:

• On January 5, a VBIED was discovered and neutralized in Rawa, northern Anbar, marking a rare but serious terrorist threat.

• Anbar’s electricity department head was targeted in an attack in Fallujah on January 12, though he survived.

• Seven motorcycle-borne VBIEDs were dismantled in western Iraq, demonstrating IS’s continued capability to launch attacks.

• Counterterrorism operations intensified in Nineveh, leading to multiple IS arrests.

Political & Legislative Trends

• Speculation about US action against PMF factions increased following discussions of Washington’s possible negotiations with Iran.

• Parliament passed three controversial laws on January 21:

  • The General Amnesty Law allows retrials of terrorism-related cases, raising security concerns.

  • The Baathist Land Claims Resolution could trigger sectarian disputes, particularly in Kirkuk.

  • The Personal Status Law amendment has drawn criticism due to its potential impact on women’s rights.

Security Forecast for February 2025

• Increased protests are likely in Dhi Qar and Baghdad, particularly around government offices and employment-related issues.

• Islamic State activity may intensify in western Iraq, especially in Anbar and Nineveh.

• PKK drone strikes are expected to continue in Kurdistan, potentially leading to further Turkish military responses.

• Basra may see further tribal violence, particularly if unresolved disputes escalate.

• Legal challenges to the controversial laws may trigger demonstrations, particularly in Baghdad and Kirkuk.

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